US sinking down into Syria quicksand
Jim W. Dean
As the rebel assault has ground to a halt, and the superior manpower of the Syrian army having shown it can conduct search and clear operations, the Free Syrian army is in a war of attrition it cannot win. It is much easier to recruit when you are winning and casualties not too bad than when the tide turns to stalemate and losing ground.
The al-Nusra Front has been bleeding fighters away from the FSA. They are paying better and the AN brigades now have access to weapons the FSA does not. The al-Nusras had strategically focused on key infrastructure acquisition including some of the oil revenue prizes. Win or lose, Assad or no Assad, or even with a negotiated settlement, they aren’t leaving.
The West has been birthing another training ground in Syria for seasoned extremist Jihadis who will soon be looking for the next fight when Syria calms down. And it is just a matter of time before someone begins slipping them more powerful weaponry. But who will they using it on, next month, a year, or two years from now?
I fear that the West may now feel that the FSA could collapse if a stalemate continues and leave the al-Nusras the primary opposition force controlled by whom? Sure, the Saudis and Qatar warlords are supplying the payrolls and the weapons now, but new suppliers could always emerge, like Assad’s stockpiles if there were a collapse.
Libyan weapons and fighters are already in Syria with more said to be on the way. Is the CIA helping them hoping to kill two birds with one stone with two groups they want to get rid of fighting each other? And if Assad did fall and the FSA and al-Nusras began a civil war right away with the horrible civilian casualties that would be expected, who would carry that historical blood on their hands?
So now we have ‘enter stage left’ the Israeli intervention. Why? Well, I think you all would agree that they don’t view blood on their hands as much of a public relations problem. It never has been, so far.
The story goes that the recent attacks were air launched ‘stand off’ weapons fired over Lebanon airspace at a safe distance from the Russian air defenses in Syria. I say they are Russia not only because of the origins of the missiles, but more importantly, they are manned by Russian air defense troops.
None of the post attack analysis I have read so far has dared touch the red line no one will discuss, not even the Americans. What would the Soviets do if their forces who have remained neutral so far other than defending against air attacks, were themselves attacked?
Already we see in the corporate press the last Israeli attack has paved the way for public discussion of an impending intervention to get the public use to hearing about it so it is less of a shock when it happens. Reuters was careful to refer to air defenses as Syrian, not Russian.
The cover and deception for the latest Israeli strikes were the usual ghost missiles which can always be made to appear where needed to justify an attack. Hezbollah has plenty of missiles, and they are no threat to Israel whatsoever, unless Israel is planning to attack Lebanon. All military planners know this, just like they really know Iran is no offensive threat, but has to be painted as one to keep the American public paying for our forward deployment in that region.
Everyone knows that Hezbollah has pulled together whatever it could for a deterrent. Regardless of what anyone might think about the political and ideological differences, once one party is attacked it has legal right to defend itself, as was done in the last Lebanon war.
So the democratic West, which calls itself the free world, has besmirched that reputation by officially adopting the preemptive strike doctrine, a la NeoCon/Israeli Lobby madness. This has created a theater of the absurd where everyone knows that false flags will be pre-staged to create the need for full scale response strike.
How is this done? Simple. You do attacks like Israel has just done which are a ploy of course to pull Iran into the quicksand party, too. And if Iran remains cool and does not take the bait (my bet) a false flag can be staged to blame you know who, with the motive being retaliation by the Iranians for the aforementioned pre-emptive attacks on the Syrians. The uniformed public would generally buy that scenario.
But there is a problem. The public has had many years now to educate themselves about the rogue element operating behind the scenes in Western countries to trigger wars nowadays, and they take nothing on face value. When the weaker attack the stronger, everyone smells a setup.
But keeping home country casualties low is critical to getting the public to accept aggressive military action with a smile. They already know when the bill comes due who is going to suffer the budget cutbacks, and it is not the defense contractors.
If conventional Western military superiority is deceptively used in what is clearly wanton aggression, terrorism will be fueled by new generations, and the miniaturization of nuclear weapons will eventually find their way into their hands, where it will be payback time.
The Israelis tested world reaction to their repeated invasions of Lebanese air space, and it was basically zero. The UN is beginning to understand that the more it condemns aggressions and is totally ignored, the weaker it looks and is held in contempt.
The Lebanon incursions were just a warm-up to what they are doing now, and the world outrage has only gone up a slight notch as we get closer and closer to the big trap being sprung, which is giving the rebels heavy weapons and air cover to renew their offensive. A negotiated settlement has been totally rejected by the West, and a lot of innocent people will die for that poor judgment.
The Israelis could never risk losing planes over Syria. Our Intel sources have confirmed that Israeli mobile 155mm howitzers forayed into Syria during the night to shell the Syrian army position with 70 to 80 rounds over a grid area. If you watch the YouTube video and turn the volume up you can hear and see them coming in as they sound like a train.
The big explosion was an ammo dump or an Israeli bunker buster being tested out, sending a signal maybe to the underground Syria military high command that they can be struck. We heard soon after that depleted uranium had been used… bunker buster material and something not used against missiles in transport.
The Russians have more advanced missiles, longer range, which can shoot down the Israeli planes over Lebanon. They can also strike Israeli airbases with their missile subs. Would the Russians do it if their air defense missile positions were attacked? I think so. How could they not respond? Such is the game of chicken that is being played here.
If the NATO countries joined in a general air attack against Syria, would the Russians cut off their gas pipelines? And what would that do to the delicate financial position the EU is in now, being the house of cards that it is? And who would be blamed for the financial devastation that ensued, those defending themselves, or those who were clearly the aggressors?
And if the respective publics then wanted their leaders heads on pikes, do the elites in their countries have ready plans to save themselves by triggering ‘the big one’ in terms of a huge terror attack in their own countries to blame on you know who? Would they really do that to save themselves?
They have already done it… not to save themselves but purely out of greed, and they got away with it. If their survival were at stake they would kill their own people without hesitation. So the time folks to start raising holy hell about these bogus military threat scenarios is NOW.
If we wait until afterward the damage will be done and most of our fellow citizens will probably be cowering in place. What they won’t do now, they will not do later when they are poorer and weaker. The elites know that, and are betting on it. That is why they are playing with all of our lives like they are now. It’s a supremacist thing with them.
We are running out of time people. We have to find a way to put the elites into the quicksand, without them standing on our heads. Instead of our hopes and dreams being dead, it should be theirs instead.
Jim W. Dean comes from an old military family dating back to the American Revolution. His father was a WWII P-40 and later P-51 Mustang fighter pilot. Jim's mother was a WWII widow at 16, her first husband killed with all 580 aboard when the SS Paul Hamilton, an ammunition ship with 7000 tons of explosives aboard, was torpedoed off the coast of Algiers. He has appeared on PBS most recently on the Looking for Lincoln documentary with Prof. Henry Lewis Gates and lectured at the Army Command and General Staff School at Fort Gordon. His current writing focus is on national security, intelligence, black and psyops, military/Intel history including personal video archives, and the current wars. Jim Dean is the managing editor of Veterans Today.