PNAC is BACK: Which Path to Persia?

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Options for a New American Strategy toward Iran

WHICH PATH TO PERSIA?

Options for a New American Strategy toward Iran

Kenneth M. Pollack
Daniel L. Byman
Martin indyk
suzanne Maloney
Michael e. o’hanlon
Bruce riedel


Disclaimer


Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American
Strategy toward Iran is a product of the Saban
Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings
Institution. The essays were written by Saban
Center scholars Daniel L. Byman, Martin Indyk,
Suzanne Maloney, Michael E. O’Hanlon, Kenneth

M. Pollack, and Bruce Riedel. Kenneth Pollack
also served as the overall editor.
None of the ideas expressed in this volume
should be construed as representing the views
of any of the individual authors. The collection
is a collaborative effort, and the authors attempted
to present each of the options as objectively as
possible, without introducing their own subjective opinions about them. The aim of this exercise
was to highlight the challenges of all the options and to allow readers to decide for themselves
which they believe to be best.

All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect
the official positions or views of the CIA or any other U.S. Government Agency. Nothing in
the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. Government authentication of
information or Agency endorsement of the authors’ views. This material has been reviewed by
the CIA to prevent the disclosure of classified information.


The Saban Center at The Brookings Institution iii


acknowledgements


The authors are deeply grateful for the financial assistance from the smith richardson Foundation, the crown Family Foundation, and others in the drafting and publication of this study.

The Saban Center at The Brookings Institution v


the authors


Kenneth M. Pollack
Kenneth Pollack is Director of research at the saban center for Middle east Policy at Brookings.
he served as Director for Persian Gulf affairs and Near east and south asian affairs at the National security council, senior research Professor at National Defense University, and Persian Gulf military analyst at the cia. his latest book is A Path out of the Desert: A Grand Strategy for
America in the Middle East (random house). he is also the author of The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict between Iran and America (random house), The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq (random house), and Arabs at War: Military Effectiveness, 1948-1991 (University of Nebraska Press).

Daniel L. Byman
Daniel Byman is a senior Fellow at the saban center at Brookings. he is Director of the center for
Peace and security studies and an associate Professor in the school of Foreign service at Georgetown University. he has held positions with the National commission on terrorist attacks on the United states (the “9/11 commission”), the Joint 9/11 inquiry and senate intelligence committees, the raND corporation, and the U.s. government. he writes widely on issues related to U.s. national security, terrorism, and the Middle east. his latest books are Deadly Connections: State Sponsorship of Terrorism (cambridge University Press) and The Five Front War: The Better Way to Fight Global Jihad (Wiley).

Martin Indyk
Martin indyk is the Director of the saban center for Middle east Policy at Brookings. he served in
several senior positions in the U.s. government, most recently as ambassador to israel and before that as assistant secretary of state for Near east affairs and as special assistant to President clinton and senior Director for Near east and south asian affairs in the National security council. Before entering government service, he served for eight years as founding executive Director of the Washington institute for Near east Policy. he has published widely on U.s. policy in the Middle east and the arab-israeli peace process. his most recent book, Innocent Abroad: An Intimate Account of American Peace Diplomacy in the Middle East (simon
& schuster), was published in January 2009.

Suzanne Maloney
SuzanneMaloney is a senior Fellow at the saban center for Middle east Policy at Brookings. she has worked on the state Department’s Policy Planning staff where she provided policy analysis
and recommendations on iran, iraq, the Gulf states, and broader Middle east issues. Before
joining the government, she was the Middle east adviser at exxonMobil corporation and served as project director of the task Force on U.s.-iran relations at the council on Foreign relations.

The Saban Center at The Brookings Institution vii


Michael e. o’hanlon
Michael o’hanlon is a senior Fellow in Foreign Policy studies at the Brookings institution. he is
also Director of research for the 21st century Defense initiative and senior author of the Brookings iraq index and holds the sydney stein chair at Brookings. a former defense budget analyst who advised Members of congress on military spending, he specializes in iraq, North Korea, afghanistan, homeland security, Nuclear strategy, the use of military force, and other defense issues. he is the author of Budgeting for Hard Power (Brookings) and The Science of War (Princeton University Press), both forthcoming this summer.

Bruce riedel
Bruce riedel is senior Fellow for Political transitions in the Middle east and south asia at the saban center for Middle east Policy at Brookings. he served as chairman of President obama’s strategic review of U.s. Policy toward afghanistan and Pakistan. in 2006, he retired after 30 years service at the cia including postings overseas in the Middle east and europe. he was a senior adviser on the region to the last four presidents of the United states as a staff member of the National security council at the White house. he was also Deputy assistant secretary of Defense for the Near east and south asia at the Pentagon and a senior adviser at the North atlantic treaty organization in Brussels. riedel was a member of President clinton’s peace team at the camp David, Wye river, and shepherdstown summits. he is the author of The Search for Al Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology, and Future (Brookings).


table of contents


introduction

The trouble with tehran: U.s. Policy options toward iran ......................................1

Part i

Dissuading tehran: The Diplomatic options . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . .. 21

chapter 1: an offer iran shouldn’t refuse: Persuasion .......................................23
chapter 2: tempting tehran: The engagement option .......................................42


Part ii

Disarming tehran: The Military options ....................................................61


chapter 3: Going all the Way: invasion . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . .. 63
chapter 4: The osiraq option: airstrikes. .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . .. 74
chapter 5: Leave it to Bibi: allowing or encouraging an

israeli Military strike .........................................................89


Part iii

toppling tehran: regime change. . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . . 101

chapter 6: The Velvet revolution: supporting a Popular Uprising. . . . .. . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . 103
chapter 7: inspiring an insurgency: supporting iranian Minority

and opposition Groups...................................................... .113
chapter 8: The coup: supporting a Military Move against the regime ........................122


Part iV

Deterring tehran: containment.. . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . . 129

chapter 9: accepting the Unacceptable: containment. . . . .. . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . .. . . . . . . 131

conclusion

crafting an integrated iran Policy: connecting the options .. . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . .. . . ..... 145

The Saban Center at The Brookings Institution xi


introduction
the troUBLe With tehraN


U.s. Policy options toward iran

What should the United states do about iran? The question is easily asked, but for nearly 30 years, Washington has had difficulty coming up with a good answer. The islamic republic
presents a particularly confounding series of challenges for the United states. Many iranian
leaders regard the United states as their greatest enemy for ideological, nationalistic, and/or security reasons, while a great many average iranians evince the most pro-american feelings of any in the Muslim world. Unlike other states that may also fear or loathe the United states, iran’s leaders have consistently acted on these beliefs, working assiduously to undermine american interests and influence throughout the Middle east, albeit with greater or lesser degrees of success at different times. Moreover, iranian foreign policy is frequently driven by internal political considerations that are both difficult to discern by the outside world and even harder to influence. More than once, iran has followed a course that to outsiders
appeared self-defeating but galvanized the iranian people to make far-reaching sacrifices in
the name of seemingly quixotic goals.

Despite these frustrating realities, the United states is not in a position to simply ignore iran, either. iran is an important country in a critical part of the world. although tehran’s role in creating problems in the Middle east is often exaggerated, it has unquestionably taken advantage of the growing instability there (itself partly a result of american missteps) to make important gains, often at Washington’s expense. Meanwhile, the 2007 National intelligence estimate on iran, properly understood, warned that tehran was likely to acquire the capability to manufacture nuclear weapons at some point in the next decade.1

an Undistinguished record

Perhaps not surprisingly, the track record of U.s. policies toward iran is not particularly impressive. since 1979 Washington has tried everything from undeclared warfare to unilateral concessions. These policies have done better at limiting iranian mischief making than their critics will admit but have largely failed to convince tehran to drop its support for terrorist groups, its pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, or its wider efforts to overturn the regional status quo.

For its part, the Bush 43 administration had no explicit policy toward tehran for its first two to

1 National intelligence council, “National intelligence estimate. iran: Nuclear intentions and capabilities,” November 2007, available at , downloaded on February 9, 2009.

three years. The administration simply did not know what to do about iran and relegated it to
the “too hard box,” which led to crosswise tactical decisions—like accepting iranian cooperation
against the taliban and al-Qa’ida early on but musing indiscreetly about bringing regime change to tehran after Kabul and Baghdad. only in 20032004, after the surprising progress of iran’s nuclear program was revealed, did Washington adopt a deliberate approach to tehran. in part because of the inherent difficulties in dealing with iran, and in part because of the deep divisions within the Bush 43 administration, the resulting policy attempted to straddle at least two very different approaches: attempting to mobilize international pressure on iran to give up its nuclear program while retaining, at least rhetorically, the threat to pursue regime change (if not military action)— and being unwilling to take further actions in the diplomatic sphere that were seen as “soft” on tehran or otherwise inconsistent with regime change.

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Read the rest here: NECON DOC Path To Persia: Jack Lew/AIPAC Connected Brookings Institute Step By Step Manual For The Iran War Surfaces

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