Friday, 31 May 2013

The Grand Syrian Chess Board: Behind the Game Played by Russia, Israel, the U.S. and Other Powers

 .

By Karl Vick

The umbrella group representing Syria‘s rebellion on the world stage announced on Thursday that they would not attend peace talks proposed to take place in Geneva during June, a flat rejection that might appear to sideline the role of diplomacy in the civil war. But diplomacy is running full bore in the Syrian conflict, and even as horrors multiply on the battlefield, a good portion of the war is also being carried out in words. The best evidence might be the statements that overshadowed the rebels’ declaration in the same news cycle: President Bashar Assad hinted in a television interview that Russia has already delivered some components of an anti-aircraft battery known as S-300.

Assad’s remarks amounted to what was originally dubbed “CNN diplomacy,” the use of satellite television to deliver a message. The term is no longer in use, in part because it has become the norm and in part because there are so many alternatives to CNN. In this case, the medium was a significant part of the message: The embattled Syrian President spoke with Al Manar, the satellite channel run by Hizballah, the Lebanon-based militia Syria supports alongside the Islamic Republic of Iran, whose Press TV propaganda arm elucidated some of the finer points of the sit-down. Military commanders like to quote Carl von Clausewitz’s dictum that war is the extension of politics by other means. But you never hear diplomats reference Mary Poppins on the relevant criteria for the perfect nanny: “Play games. All sorts.” Consider some of the diplomatic games engendered by the Syrian conflict:

Sabre rattling.

The S-300 is an impressive threat to enemy warplanes. When Russia made a deal to sell the system to Iran, the Pentagon was so unsettled by its implications for U.S. airpower that Washington pressured Moscow for years to renege on the deal, which it finally did in 2010, under cover of international sanctions aimed at Tehran’s nuclear program. Russia’s promise to deliver the same system to Syria means almost nothing in terms of the conduct of the civil war itself: The rebels have no planes.

But Israel does, and if the S-300s are delivered, “We will know what to do,” Israeli defense minister Moshe “Bogie” Ya’alon said this week. The implication was clear, given Israel’s recent track record: Three times in the last four months, Israeli F-16s have struck inside Syria, taking out precisely the kind of advanced weapons systems that the S-300 is counted among. These attacks were meant to be discreet, and aimed only at preventing the transfer of those weapons to Hizballah, a formidable proxy military force Iran helped form to battle Israel. Publicly and reportedly through back channels as well, the Israelis emphasize that their quarrel is not with Assad, whose demise many inside Israel see as a positive development (because it would also greatly degrade Hizballah, and by extension Iran, both of which sent fighters to help Assad). A second school of thought in Israel values Assad as “the devil we know,” a largely predictable and risk-averse enemy who now could be supplanted by a coterie of jihadist rebels, some of whom are formally allied with al-Qaeda.

“Israel did not intend to interfere, and these alleged strikes had very little to do with the rebellion that’s taking place in Syria,” says Yiftah Shappir, director of the Military Balance Project at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank heavily staffed by retirees from Israel’s security services. “Israel is not intervening in favor or one side or the other.”

That’s the strong official line. After Ya’alon’s veiled threat, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered government officials to keep mum about Syria. By then, the commander of his air force had already warned in an open forum that, should Assad fall, Israel is poised to mount massive operations aimed at immediately destroying the chemical, biological and advanced weapons systems held by Syria’s military.  The alternative – the weapons disappearing into the stateless world of al-Qaeda and other terror configurations – more than justifies the risk Israel would undertake in involving itself in the fighting, said Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel. “We may find ourselves having to take action, on a very broad scale, within a very short period of time,” Eshel said.

Facebook Diplomacy.

Netanyahu made the same point on the premier social media site in March, by way of justifying his government’s decision to patch up relations with Turkey: “It’s important that Turkey and Israel, which both share a border with Syria, are able to communicate with each other and this is also relevant to other regional challenges….Syria is crumbling, and its massive stockpiles of advanced weapons are starting to fall into the hands of various elements. What we fear most is that terrorist groups will get their hands on chemical weapons.”

Preventive diplomacy. 

The most concrete evidence that Israel wants to stay out of Syria’s civil war is its repeated glossing of incidents on that shared border, which still exists as a military front from wars decades past. One day late last month, an Israeli foot patrol from the Golani Brigade’s reconnaissance battalion entered no-man’s land between the two fronts, was spotted by Syrian regulars, and found themselves pinned down as the Syrians walked mortar fire toward them.  Then, before other Israeli forces could rescue them, Syrian soldiers were spotted heading their way on foot, a sight that prompted Israeli commanders to launch fire that destroyed the Syrian position. Like an earlier episode when an Israeli Defense Force jeep took fire from the Syrian side, Israeli officials blandly suggested the problem may have been “stray fire.”

Gunboat diplomacy. 

A dozen Russian warships moved into Syrian waters near the base at Tartous, where Syria and Russia operate a joint naval base, Russia’s only warm-water facility. In a throwback to the Cold War, the deployment signaled solidarity with Assad and an implicit warning to those powers – the U.S., the EU, Turkey and other Sunni states aligned with the rebels, chiefly Saudi Arabia and Qatar – that Moscow will defend its stake it has maintained over generations in Syria, its one Middle East interest.

The vessels would not be expected to figure in the fighting – though they presumably carry intelligence-gathering capabilities. Their presence is chiefly symbolic. And actually, so is the flap over the S-300, according to Shapir, the Israeli defense analyst. The system, while formidable, is so complex that it could not be assembled inside of six months. Then there’s the challenge of training Syrians to use it.

As an alternative, Russia could send its own operators, an option that Israel would find far less threatening. “By the way,” Shapir says, “it would be seen by the Russians as a counterbalance to six [NATO] Patriot batteries now in Turkey, on the Syrian border. Operated by the Americans, Germans and Dutch. And of course if Russia sends in Russian units with Russian soldiers, Israel would not attack.”

In any event, the latest word out of Russia is that the  S-300s will not be delivered to Syria for another year, at least. So what was all the fuss about? “The announcement about the transfer, I think, is a Russian game, “ Shapir says. “It’s a Russian game meant to make clear to the whole world that they have a  strong interest in Syria, and they should not be ignored.”



 http://world.time.com/2013/05/31/the-syrian-chess-board-behind-the-game-played-by-russia-israel-the-u-s-and-other-powers/#ixzz2UtaCDOEj

46 comments:

  1. I can say that if we start using the products that are not hurting our planet then we have a planet that will not be hurting our lives.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ashoka Packers and Movers in Hyderabad are the best service providers. If you need packing and moving service in Hyderabad then Contact Ashoka Packers and Movers because they are providing cost-effective relocation services.

    Packers and Movers Sainikpuri
    Packers and Movers Zaheerabad

    ReplyDelete
  3. Best Packers and Movers in Ahmedabad | Commercial Transportation Services in India
    SR Logistics is India’s Fastest Growing Best Packers and movers Company, Household Shifting,Packing and Moving Services and Commercial Transportation Services in India, Mumbai, Jaipur, Surat, Rajkot, Noida, Hyderabad, Pune.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Our Lady of Fatima University is a private university in the Philippines. No 1 MBBS University of Philippines, Admission Process & Fee structure of University of medication is reasonable as per its quality education.

    ReplyDelete
  5. MBBS IN Russia - Study MBBS in Russia in Lowest fee structure, admission process for MBBS in Russia in 2019, MBBS in Russia for Indian students, best English Medium MBBS universities in Russia with hostel & canteen. Studying MBBS in Russia gaining quality among Indian students, as a result of the Russian Federation contains a smart variety of the simplest medical Universities in World. Russian MBBS is recognised by MCI and WHO. Thousands of doctors are already practicing in India who holds Russian medical MBBS degree. Students taking MBBS from MCI recognised universities are eligible to appear for MCI screening test.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Mbbs in Russia | Study Mbbs in Russia | Mbbs Admission in Russia Process and Fee Structure 2019
    MBBS IN Russia - Study MBBS in Russia in Lowest fee structure, admission process for MBBS in Russia in 2019, MBBS in Russia for Indian students, best English Medium MBBS universities in Russia with hostel & canteen.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Mbbs in Russia | Study Mbbs in Russia | Mbbs Admission in Russia Process and Fee Structure 2019
    MBBS IN Russia - Study MBBS in Russia in Lowest fee structure, admission process for MBBS in Russia in 2019, MBBS in Russia for Indian students, best English Medium MBBS universities in Russia with hostel & canteen.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Nutraceutical Products- Krishnam Bio Tech, one of the best Manufacturer, Dealers, Exporter and Supplier of Multivitamin product, Health supplement, Nutraceutical Company in India, Multivitamin Tablet in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Career Way Academy provide you the Best coaching for GPSC CLASS I II & III, BANKING, SSC, RRB Railway Recruitment, PSI, Bank Clerk/PO, IBPS Clerk Pre-Exam Training, Competitive Exam, IBPS, UPSC, Government Exam Classes in Maninagar, Bapunagar, Ghodasar, Naroda, Isanpur, Khokhara, CTM, Hatkeshwar, Vatva. Bank Exam coaching classes, GPSC coaching classes, Competitive Exam classes, RRB Railway Classes in Ahmedabad, IBPS classes, Government Exam classes, SSC exam class, UPSC Exam class, GPSC Coaching Classes in Ahmedabad, Bank Clerk/PO, IBPS Clerk Pre-Exam Training Maninagar, Bapunagar, Ghodasar, Naroda, Isanpur, Khokhara, CTM, Hatkeshwar, Vatva, Kheda, Anand, Gujarat, India.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Best Coaching Classes for GPSC, BANK PO, RRB, SSC, SBI PO in Maninagar, Bapunagar, CTM, Ahmedabad

    Career Way Academy provide you the Best coaching for GPSC CLASS I II & III, BANKING, SSC, RRB Railway Recruitment, PSI, Bank Clerk/PO, IBPS Clerk Pre-Exam Training, Competitive Exam, IBPS, UPSC, Government Exam Classes in Maninagar, Bapunagar, Ghodasar, Naroda, Isanpur, Khokhara, CTM, Hatkeshwar, Vatva.

    Bank Exam coaching classes, GPSC coaching classes, Competitive Exam classes, RRB Railway Classes in Ahmedabad, IBPS classes, Government Exam classes, SSC exam class, UPSC Exam class, GPSC Coaching Classes in Ahmedabad, Bank Clerk/PO, IBPS Clerk Pre-Exam Training Maninagar, Bapunagar, Ghodasar, Naroda, Isanpur, Khokhara, CTM, Hatkeshwar, Vatva, Kheda, Anand, Gujarat, India.

    gpsc coaching class

    ReplyDelete
  11. Best Coaching Classes for GPSC, BANK PO, RRB, SSC, SBI PO in Maninagar, Bapunagar, CTM, Ahmedabad

    Career Way Academy provide you the Best coaching for GPSC CLASS I II & III, BANKING, SSC, RRB Railway Recruitment, PSI, Bank Clerk/PO, IBPS Clerk Pre-Exam Training, Competitive Exam, IBPS, UPSC, Government Exam Classes in Maninagar, Bapunagar, Ghodasar, Naroda, Isanpur, Khokhara, CTM, Hatkeshwar, Vatva.

    Bank Exam coaching classes, GPSC coaching classes, Competitive Exam classes, RRB Railway Classes in Ahmedabad, IBPS classes, Government Exam classes, SSC exam class, UPSC Exam class, GPSC Coaching Classes in Ahmedabad, Bank Clerk/PO, IBPS Clerk Pre-Exam Training Maninagar, Bapunagar, Ghodasar, Naroda, Isanpur, Khokhara, CTM, Hatkeshwar, Vatva, Kheda, Anand, Gujarat, India.

    gpsc coaching class

    ReplyDelete
  12. Polyurethane Hose manufacturer, PU Hose, Textile Machinery Spares, Hoses, India
    Flexaflex Hoses - We are leading manufacturers and suppliers of PU Hose, Textile Machinery Spares, PVC Duct Hose and Polyurethane Hose in India. Soldering fume exhaust hose, Santoprene hose, OHTC blow hose, Braided hose, Suction Hose, Ahmedabad, Gujarat.
    Polyurethane Hose manufacturer, PU Hose

    ReplyDelete
  13. Polyurethane Hose manufacturer, PU Hose, Textile Machinery Spares, Hoses, India
    Flexaflex Hoses - We are leading manufacturers and suppliers of PU Hose, Textile Machinery Spares, PVC Duct Hose and Polyurethane Hose in India. Soldering fume exhaust hose, Santoprene hose, OHTC blow hose, Braided hose, Suction Hose, Ahmedabad, Gujarat.
    Polyurethane Hose manufacturer, PU Hose

    ReplyDelete
  14. Polyurethane Hose manufacturer, PU Hose, Textile Machinery Spares, Hoses, India
    Flexaflex Hoses - We are leading manufacturers and suppliers of PU Hose, Textile Machinery Spares, PVC Duct Hose and Polyurethane Hose in India. Soldering fume exhaust hose, Santoprene hose, OHTC blow hose, Braided hose, Suction Hose, Ahmedabad, Gujarat.
    Polyurethane Hose manufacturer, PU Hose

    ReplyDelete
  15. MBBS in Georgia | Study MBBS in Georgia | Mbbs Admission in Georgia | Fee Structure
    MBBS in Georgia - All the Universities are recognized by MCI, WHO and UNESCO. Study MBBS in Georgia, Georgia Universities Fee Structure 2019, Mbbs Admission process in Georgia. Low cost education with best quality.
    MBBS in Georgia, Study MBBS in Georgia, MBBS in Georgia Fee Structure 2019, Top Universities For Mbbs in Georgia

    ReplyDelete
  16. MBBS in Georgia | Study MBBS in Georgia | Mbbs Admission in Georgia | Fee Structure
    MBBS in Georgia - All the Universities are recognized by MCI, WHO and UNESCO. Study MBBS in Georgia, Georgia Universities Fee Structure 2019, Mbbs Admission process in Georgia. Low cost education with best quality.
    MBBS in Georgia, Study MBBS in Georgia, MBBS in Georgia Fee Structure 2019, Top Universities For Mbbs in Georgia

    ReplyDelete
  17. MBBS in Georgia | Study MBBS in Georgia | Mbbs Admission in Georgia | Fee Structure
    MBBS in Georgia - All the Universities are recognized by MCI, WHO and UNESCO. Study MBBS in Georgia, Georgia Universities Fee Structure 2019, Mbbs Admission process in Georgia. Low cost education with best quality.
    MBBS in Georgia, Study MBBS in Georgia, MBBS in Georgia Fee Structure 2019, Top Universities For Mbbs in Georgia

    ReplyDelete
  18. Tablet Inspection Machine | Capsule Inspection Machine | Pharma Machinery | Conveyor System
    Nylopick Engineering Co. is manufacturers, suppliers and exporters of Tablet Inspection Machine, Capsule Inspection Machine, Pharma Machinery, Conveyor System, All Types of Conveyor System Belts, Pvc food grade belts, Pharma change parts in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India.
    Tablet Inspection Machine, Capsule Inspection Machine, Pharma Machinery, Conveyor System, Pvc food grade belts, Pharma change parts, Nylopick Engineering Co., Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India.
    http://nylopickengg.com/

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hi Fi Design Institute - Best Fashion Design Institute in Ahmedabad, Interior design institute in Ahmedabad, Diploma in Interior Design Course in India, Diploma in Fashion and Interior design institute in Bapunagar, Nikol, Navrangpura, Gujarat, India.
    HI FI Design Institute In Ahmedabad, Best Fashion Design Institute in Ahmedabad, interior design institute, Best fashion design institute, Diploma in fashion design institute, Best interior design institute, fashion and interior design course in ahmedabad, fashion and interior design course in ahmedabad, Diploma in Interior Design Institute, Hi Fi Design Institute is Govt Approved, Daskroi, Sanand, Bavla, Dholka, Viramgam, Mandal, Detroj-Rampura, Dhandhuka and Dholera. Bapunagar, Dariyapur, Kalupur, Kankaria Lake, Shahibaug, Bodakdev, Maninagar, Vastrapur and Naroda, Gujarat, India.

    http://www.hifidesigninstitute.com/


    ReplyDelete
  20. Expansion Bellows Manufacturers India | Basket Strainers |Sight Flow Indicators
    Yogiraj Engineering Company - Expansion Bellows manufacturers, suppliers and exporters in India, Basket Strainers, Sight Flow Indicators, Y strainer, EOT Crane and Hoist, Tank and Pipe spool Fabrication and Fabric Expansion joint.
    Yogiraj Engineering Company, Expansion Bellows, Expansion Bellows Manufacturers, Basket Strainers, Sight Flow Indicators, Y strainer, EOT Crane and Hoist, Tank and Pipe spool Fabrication,Fabric Expansion joint, Gujarat, India
    http://yogirajengg.com/

    ReplyDelete
  21. V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Mbbs Admission in Ukraine, Fee Structure
    http://yashoverseas.in/medical-universities/study-mbbs-in-ukraine/v-n-karazin-kharkiv-national-university/
    V.N. Karazin Kharkov National University is one in all the oldest and most prestigious European Universities. Study in VN Karazin Kharkiv National University Fee Structure 2019, Mbbs Admission in Ukraine, Ranking & Review.
    VN Karazin Kharkiv National University, V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Mbbs Admission in Ukraine, Study in V.N Karazin Kharkiv National University, V.N Karazin Kharkiv National University Fee Structure, V.N Karazin Kharkiv National University Fee Structure 2019, Ranking & Review

    ReplyDelete
  22. Best SEO Company in Maninagar, Ahmedabad
    http://kaivalinfotech.com/portfolio/
    We are the Best SEO Company in Maninagar, Ahmedabad. Website Design and Web Development Company, Located in Ahmedabad, Gujarat,India. Top IT company in India

    ReplyDelete
  23. Great Blog, Thanks for sharing this valuable information
    Best Packers and Movers Services
    packers and movers chennai
    packers and movers

    ReplyDelete
  24. Ternopil National Medical University Ranks No 1 in Ukraine among the higher medical schools. Low cost of living, affordable fee structure 2019. TSMU Admission Process.
    Ternopil State Medical University, ternopil state medical university, study mbbs in ternopil state medical university, ternopil state medical university fee structure 2019, TSMU Ranking & Review

    ReplyDelete
  25. Ternopil National Medical University Ranks No 1 in Ukraine among the higher medical schools. Low cost of living, affordable fee structure 2019. TSMU Admission Process.
    Ternopil State Medical University, ternopil state medical university, study mbbs in ternopil state medical university, ternopil state medical university fee structure 2019, TSMU Ranking & Review

    ReplyDelete
  26. Ternopil National Medical University Ranks No 1 in Ukraine among the higher medical schools. Low cost of living, affordable fee structure 2019. TSMU Admission Process.
    Ternopil State Medical University, ternopil state medical university, study mbbs in ternopil state medical university, ternopil state medical university fee structure 2019, TSMU Ranking & Review

    ReplyDelete

  27. Our Lady of Fatima University

    https://yashoverseas.in/medical-universities/study-mbbs-in-philippines/our-lady-of-fatima-university/
    Our Lady of Fatima University is a private university in the Philippines. No 1 MBBS University of Philippines, Admission Process & Fee structure of University of medication is reasonable as per its quality education.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Thermal Spray Coating | HVOF Coating | Polyurethane Rollers Manufacturers India
    Silicon Metallizi ng- Thermal Spray Coating Services, Plasma Coating and HVOF Coating. Get here listings of pu rollers, polyurethane rollers manufacturers, suppliers and exporters in Ahmedabad, India.
    Thermal Spray Coating Services, Plasma Coating, HVOF Coating, Polyurethane rollers manufacturers, suppliers and exporters
    http://siliconmetallizing.com/

    ReplyDelete
  29. Thermal Spray Coating | HVOF Coating | Polyurethane Rollers Manufacturers India
    Silicon Metallizi ng- Thermal Spray Coating Services, Plasma Coating and HVOF Coating. Get here listings of pu rollers, polyurethane rollers manufacturers, suppliers and exporters in Ahmedabad, India.
    Thermal Spray Coating Services, Plasma Coating, HVOF Coating, Polyurethane rollers manufacturers, suppliers and exporters
    http://siliconmetallizing.com/

    ReplyDelete
  30. Great News, Thanks for sharing this important information, If you are looking for packers and movers services in Chennai Then you can contact with LogisticMart.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Flexaflex Hoses - We are leading manufacturers and suppliers of PU Hose Ahmedabad, Textile Machinery Spares, PVC Duct Hose and Polyurethane Hose in India. Soldering fume exhaust hose, Santoprene hose, OHTC blow hose, Braided hose, Suction Hose Ahmedabad, Gujarat.
    https://flexaflexhoses.com/

    ReplyDelete
  32. Nutraceutical Products | Multivitamin Tablet Manufacturer in India
    https://www.krishnambiotech.com/
    Nutraceutical Products- Krishnam Bio Tech, one of the best Manufacturer, Dealers and Supplier of Multivitamin product, Nutraceutical Company in India, Multivitamin Tablet in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India.
    Nutraceutical Products
    Multivitamin Tablet Manufacturer
    krishnambiotechahm@gmail.com
    Krish#Bio@tech

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hoses - Polyurethane Hose manufacturer, Textile Machinery Spares, India.
    Flexaflex Hoses - We are leading manufacturers and suppliers of PU Hose Ahmedabad, Textile Machinery Spares, PVC Duct Hose and Polyurethane Hose in India. Soldering fume exhaust hose, Santoprene hose, OHTC blow hose, Braided hose, Suction Hose Ahmedabad, Gujarat.
    https://flexaflexhoses.com/

    ReplyDelete
  34. I really like what you guys are up too. This type of clever work and reporting!

    Keep up the superb works guys I’ve you guys to blogroll.
    SEO services Pune

    ReplyDelete
  35. Gofacademy is one of the Best IIT JEE Coaching Institute in Delhi offering IIT JEE Advanced Coaching Classes to Students at the Lowest Fees. Contact Now

    Best IIT Coaching in Delhi
    Best IIT Coaching in Kalu Sarai
    Neet preparation institute in Dwarka

    ReplyDelete
  36. Appreciating the time and effort you put into your website and in depth information you offer. Gati Packers And Movers Bangalore found it awesome to come across a blog every once in a while, Gati Packers And Movers Hyderabad thanking you for sharing such stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Orange Packers and Movers Pune with 20 years of experience stands high on trust, customer satisfaction and has set a standard in Local Packing and Moving, Home Relocation, Office Shifting and Vehicle Transportation Services.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Thank you, why not buy stones from crystal stores and keep one in your purse, or backpack, or pocket!

    ReplyDelete
  39. Jet Cargo emerges as the foremost choice for packers and movers services in Gandhinagar. With a stellar reputation built on trust, efficiency, and reliability, they excel in delivering seamless relocation experiences for their clients. Their dedicated team ensures meticulous handling of belongings, coupled with prompt and secure transportation. Whether it's household shifting or corporate relocation, Jet Cargo sets the standard for excellence in Gandhinagar's packers and movers industry."

    ReplyDelete
  40. Moving can be a daunting task, filled with stress and countless logistical challenges. Whether you're relocating your home or office, the need for a reliable and efficient moving service is paramount. This is where Ved Cargo Packers and Movers come into play. Situated conveniently on Agra Road, they offer comprehensive packing and moving solutions tailored to meet your unique needs. Here’s why hiring Ved Cargo Packers and Movers Agra Road is the best decision you can make for a seamless relocation experience.

    ReplyDelete
  41. When planning summer camps focused on outdoor adventure, the goal is to provide participants with thrilling experiences in natural settings while promoting learning, teamwork, and personal growth. Here's a structured approach to organizing such a camp:

    https://explorexperts.co.in/

    ReplyDelete