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by Paul Craig Roberts
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy created
236,000 new jobs in February. If you believe that, I have a bridge in
Brooklyn that I’ll let you have at a good price.
Where are these alleged jobs? The BLS says 48,000 were created in
construction. That is possible, considering that revenue-starved real
estate developers are misreading the housing situation. http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/03/08/us-housing-is-the-recovery-real/print
Then there are 23,700 new jobs in retail trade, which is hard to
believe considering the absence of consumer income growth and the empty
parking lots at shopping malls.
The real puzzle is 20,800 jobs in motion picture and sound recording
industries. This is the first time in the years that I have been
following the jobs reports that there has been enough employment for me
to even notice this category.
The BLS lists 10,900 jobs in accounting and bookkeeping, which, as it
is approaching income tax time, is probably correct; 21,000 jobs in
temporary help and business support services; 39,000 jobs in health
care and social assistance; and 18,800 jobs in the old
standby–waitresses and bartenders.
That leaves about 50,000 jobs sprinkled around the various categories, but not in numbers large enough to notice.
The presstitute media attributed the drop in the headline
unemployment rate (U3) to 7.7% from 7.9% to the happy jobs report. But
Rex Nutting at Market Watch says that the unemployment rate fell because
130,000 unemployed people who have been unable to find a job and became
discouraged were dropped out of the U3 measure of unemployment. The
official U6 measure which counts some discouraged workers shows an
unemployment rate of 14.3%. Statistician John Williams’ measure, which
counts all discourage workers (people who have ceased looking for a
job), is 23%.
In other words, the real rate of unemployment is 2 to 3 times the reported rate.
Nutting believes that the U3 unemployment rate has become too
politicized to have any meaning. He suggests using instead the work
force participation rate. This rate is falling substantially, reflecting
the discouragement that occurs from inability to find jobs.
John Williams (shadowstats.com) says that distortions in seasonal
factor adjustments overstate monthly payroll employment by about 100,000
jobs. The jobs data that is not seasonally adjusted shows about 1.5
million fewer jobs in the economy.
In a recent communication, statistician John Williams
(shadowstats.com) reports that the rigged official annual rate of
consumer inflation (CPI) of 1.6% is in fact, as measured by the official
US government methodology of 1990, 9.2%. In other words, the rate of
inflation is 5.75 times greater than the reported rate. If Williams is
correct, the interest rate on bonds is extremely negative.
Over the years the official measure of inflation has been altered in
two ways. One is the introduction of substitution for what formerly was
a constant weighted basket of goods. In the former measure, if a price
of an item in the basket (index) rose, the CPI rose by the weight of
that item in the basket.
In the substitution-based measure, if a price of an item in the
basket goes up, the item is removed from the basket, and a cheaper item
is put in its place. For example, if the price of New York strip steak
rises, the new CPI will substitute the price of a cheaper cut.
In this new measure, inflation is held down by measuring not a fixed standard of living but a declining standard of living.
The other adjustment used to restrain the measure of inflation is to
re-classify many price rises as “quality improvements.” Price rises
declared to be quality improvements do not translate into a higher
measure of inflation. In other words, if a product rises in price, the
price increase or some portion of it can be assigned to improved
quality, not to a rise in component or energy costs. As the incentive is
to hold down the inflation measure in order to save money for the
government on Social Security cost-of-living-adjustments, quality
improvements are over-estimated.
Consumers have to pay the higher prices, and as incomes, except for
the 1 percent, are not growing, higher product prices, regardless of
whether they are or are not quality improvements, mean a lower standard
of living for the 99 percent.
The understated new measure of inflation allows the government to
show real GDP growth and thus the end of the December 2007 recession,
and it allows the government to show in the latest report real retail
sales again matching the pre-recession level. However, when measured
correctly, as by statistician John Williams, the true picture of retail
sales shows a steep decline from 2007 through 2009 and bottom bouncing
since.
The reason real retail sales cannot recover is that real average
weekly earnings continues its downward path. Earlier in this new
century, the lack of income growth for the bulk of the US population was
masked by a rise in consumer debt. Americans borrowed to spend, and
this kept the economy going until the point was reached that consumers
had more debt than they could service.
John Williams report of real average weekly earnings shows that
Americans are taking home less purchasing power than they did in the
1960s and 1970s.
Reflecting the dollar’s loss of purchasing power, the price of gold
and silver in dollars has risen dramatically during the Bush and Obama
regimes.
For the last year or two the Federal Reserve and its dependent banks
have operated to cap the price of gold at around $1,750. They do this
by selling naked shorts in the paper speculative gold market.
There are two gold markets. One is a market for physical possession
by individuals and central banks. The rising demand in the physical
bullion market points to a rising price for gold.
The other market is the speculative paper market in which financial
institutions bet on the future gold price. By placing large amounts of
shorts, this market can be used to suppress price rises in the physical
market. The Federal Reserve, which can print money without limit, can
cover any losses on its agents’ paper contracts.
It is important to the Federal Reserve’s low interest rate policy to
suppress the bullion price. If the prices of gold and silver continue to
rise relative to the US dollar, the Fed cannot keep the prices of bonds
high and interest rates low. If the dollar is widely perceived to be
declining in value in relation to gold, the price of dollar-denominated
assets will also decline, including bonds. If the dollar loses value,
the Fed loses control over interest rates, and the US financial bubble
pops, with hell to pay.
To forestall armageddon, the Fed and its dependent banks cap the price of gold.
The Fed’s fix is temporary, and as the Fed continues to create ever
more dollars, the price of gold will eventually escape the Fed’s control
as will interest rates and inflation.
The Fed has produced a perfect storm that could consume the US and perhaps the entire Western world.
Dr. Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury for Economic
Policy in the Reagan Administration. He was associate editor and
columnist with the Wall Street Journal, columnist for Business Week, and
the Scripps Howard News Service. He has had numerous university
appointments. His latest book, The Failure Of Laissez Faire Capitalism And Economic Dissolution Of The West, is available online.
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/03/10/staring-armageddon-in-the-face-but-hiding-it-with-official-lies-paul-craig-roberts/