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by Micah Zenko, CFR
In February, Eric Schmitt wrote in the New York Times
about the Obama administration’s emerging Yemen strategy, whereby U.S.
and Yemeni intelligence and military officials would “work together to
kill or capture about two dozen of al Qaeda’s most dangerous operatives,
who are focused on attacking America and its interests.” Like all
previous objectives of America’s Long Third War
of drone strikes, the scope of intended targets has expanded far beyond
those two dozen individuals, who should have been killed at least nine
times over by now. According to the Long Wars Journal
database, there have been forty U.S. airstrikes (drone or fixed-wing)
in Yemen this year, up from ten in 2011. These have killed 223 people,
an estimated 19 percent of them were civilians.
One of the Obama administration’s core principles of its
counterterrorism policies is that the use of force should not radicalize
populations, or increase recruits for terrorist organizations, in the
countries where the United States drops bombs. As the State Department’s
coordinator for counterterrorism, Daniel Benjamin, emphasized
in 2010: “We are eager to ensure that whatever policies we pursue do
not result in one terrorist being taken off the street while ten more
are galvanized to take action.”
Moreover, the Obama administration claims that the significant growth
in U.S. airstrikes in Yemen has not had this effect. Deputy national
security advisor for counterterrorism John Brennan stated
in August: “Contrary to conventional wisdom, we see little evidence
that [drone strikes] are generating widespread anti-American sentiment
or recruits for AQAP. In fact, we see the opposite…Targeted strikes
against the most senior and most dangerous AQAP terrorists are not the
problem–they are part of the solution.” In Late November, Stephanie
Spiers, identified as “director for Yemen at the National Security
Council, 2011-12,” wrote a letter to the Times challenging an op-ed by Princeton doctoral candidate and Yemen scholar Gregory D. Johnsen. According to Spiers:
“Mr. Johnsen says airstrikes are driving the growth of the group
known as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. In fact, it was expanding
long before American counterterrorism activities escalated, to several
hundred members by December 2009 from twenty-three in 2006 — a period
when no airstrikes were conducted. AQAP grew in 2011 because of unrest
and an influx of foreign extremists, but membership has declined after
the signing of last year’s transition deal.”
Forget that most of the 223 people killed by U.S. airpower in Yemen
are not “the most senior and most dangerous AQAP terrorists,” but
actually primarily engaged in a domestic insurgency. The latest State Department Country Reports on Terrorism claims that AQAP is comprised of “a few thousand members.” According to Johnsen,
“Yemenis who are close to AQAP suggest that the group has as many as
six thousand fighters.” No matter which estimate one chooses, the Obama
administration has a tremendous amount of killing to do in Yemen (and
elsewhere) if it is to achieve its strategic objective, which Brennan articulated
as: “We’re not going to rest until al Qaeda the organization is
destroyed and is eliminated from areas in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen,
Africa, and other areas.”
There are three excellent pieces of journalism from Yemen this week,
which demonstrate that the administration has failed to use force in a
manner that has not radicalized Yemenis, or increased the size of AQAP.
While actual Yemenis and journalists reporting from the country (see here, here, and here) have found repeatedly that the vast majority of Yemenis hate drones
strikes, these latest pieces provide additional updated, confirming
evidence. It hardly seems necessary to continue stating the obvious
point that people—who also do not welcome Islamic militants from
operating among them—hate foreign military or intelligence agencies
bombing them.
In yesterday’s Washington Post, Sudarsan Raghavan reported
on how the government of Yemen has tried to conceal civilians killed by
U.S. drones and fixed-wing aircraft as having been killed by its own
Soviet-era combat aircraft. As Raghavan wrote: “the weak government has
often tried to hide civilian casualties from the public, fearing
repercussions in a nation where hostility toward U.S. policies is
widespread. It continues to insist in local media reports that its own
aging jets attacked the truck.”
This is an especially egregious abdication of responsibility since the United States also blames Yemen in its Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: 2011 for civilian killed by airstrikes:
“The government also employed air strikes against AQAP and affiliated
insurgents in Abyan, with some strikes hitting civilian areas. Although
some accused the government of intentionally striking civilians in
Abyan, most if not all noncombatant casualties from these bombardments
were attributed to a lack of air force training and technical
capability.”
As I wrote in May 2012 about this State Department characterization:
“Because U.S. targeted killings in Yemen are “covert,” the State
Department cannot acknowledge American complicity or collusion. But it
stands to reason that some, if not a majority, of these air strikes were
carried out by CIA or Joint Special Operations Command drones, or even
U.S. Navy assets offshore. Even the most careful, discriminate, and
“surgical” uses of force can unintentionally kill civilians. According to three Yemeni officials, for instance, two drone strikes earlier this month killed seven suspected AQAP militants and eight civilians…
Although some of these strikes could have been carried out by Yemeni
forces, civilians on the ground are hardly able to distinguish among
Yemeni, CIA, and JSOC missiles. It would be difficult to devise a
counterterrorism strategy that did a better job at creating a common
enemy among victims or neutral third parties.”
Also yesterday, in the Los Angeles Times, Jeffrey Fleishman and Ken Dilanian quoted
various Yemeni parliamentarians and analysts who are demanding that
President Hadi end the practice of endorsing U.S. airstrikes. As an
analyst on Islamic militants Ahmed al Zurqua stated: “The drones have
not killed the real al Qaeda leaders, but they have increased the hatred
toward America and are causing young men to join al Qaeda to retaliate.
President Hadi is distorting and violating Yemen’s sovereignty by
cooperating with the Americans.”
Finally, today at Foreign Policy Letta Tayler writes
from Yemen about the September 2, 2012, U.S. airstrike in al-Bayda
government, which killed twelve civilians, including three children.
Tayler quotes “Ahmed al-Sabooli, twenty-two, a farmer whose parents and
ten-year-old sister were among the dead.”
“It’s as if we live in a jungle and the attack was on wild animals —
no one cares. Both the Yemeni government and the American government
killed my family and my villagers. Both of them should be brought to
justice.”
Read these pieces carefully—as well as the claims by U.S. officials
cited above—and judge for yourself if America’s drone war over Yemen is
achieving the Obama administration’s goals.
http://blogs.cfr.org/zenko/2012/12/26/americas-failing-drone-war-in-yemen/